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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 81

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(13:40) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to DAL 29, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.71 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 81, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP