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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott ran ob at PHI 42 for 9 yards (57-T.Edwards). Penalty on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.85 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model