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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 8

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 8, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP