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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 19, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model