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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 56

Dallas Cowboys 37 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to PHI 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 35-B.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.70 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 56, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP