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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 68

Arizona Cardinals 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 4-A.Lee punts 39 yards to NO 29, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-D.Harris. INJURY UPDATE: ARI #54 Marsh, CONCUSSION, OUT.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model