4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 6 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-A.Lee punts 57 yards to NO 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-D.Harris to NO 20 for 5 yards (16-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.40 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP