Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 6 – New Orleans Saints 10

(13:05) 4-A.Lee punts 55 yards to NO 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-D.Harris to NO 17 for 8 yards (87-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.66 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model