4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 32

Arizona Cardinals 6 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 5-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.01 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.91 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -1.19 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP