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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 24 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to ARI 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-P.Cooper ran ob at ARI 21 for 8 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.16 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP