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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 9 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(6:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.14 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model