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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 49

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to CAR 7, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-B.Zylstra MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 7. 11-B.Zylstra to CAR 7 for no gain (33-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model