Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 27

(13:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to SF 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model