Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 88

Carolina Panthers 13 – San Francisco 49ers 34

(6:05) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to SF 48, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.James Jr. to CAR 45 for 7 yards (18-D.White).

The Three Options

GO -3.49 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.96 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model