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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 48

San Francisco 49ers 34 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to CAR 2, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model