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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 2

San Francisco 49ers 41 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. Penalty on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP