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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 44 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to CAR 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.82 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.93 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model