4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 13 – San Francisco 49ers 51

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 20-J.Scarlett up the middle to CAR 41 for no gain (93-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.66 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model