4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:51) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 48 for 3 yards (24-T.Rapp).

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model