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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to LA 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -3.29 EP
KICK -1.97 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP