4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(4:38) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to LA 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model