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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to LA 30, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 81, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 38, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model