Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 24

(10:57) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to LA 28, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-57-G.Pratt.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.94 EP
52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model