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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:54) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to CIN 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-57-N.Patrick.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.01 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model