4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(6:30) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd to LA 9 for 18 yards (32-E.Weddle).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.73 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP