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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 5, worth +0.59 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP