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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 0 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to NE 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-44-S.Takitaki.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.63 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model