4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 87

New England Patriots 17 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to CLE 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-D.Hilliard MUFFS catch, recovered by CLE-20-T.Thomas at CLE 46. 20-T.Thomas to CLE 46 for no gain (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 87, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 45, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model