Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 58

New England Patriots 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(13:36) 7-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to CLE 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.29 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model