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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to NE 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 31, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model