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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 4-A.Seibert 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model