Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 10 – New England Patriots 24

(5:12) 7-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to NE 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 27 for 8 yards (12-K.Hodge, 22-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model