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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 64

New England Patriots 24 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to CLE 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.85 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model