Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 10 – New England Patriots 24

(13:21) 7-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to NE 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-88-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.42 EP
75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model