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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 11

New England Patriots 24 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 2-M.Nugent 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model