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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 10 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(6:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 14 for -5 yards (sack split by 50-C.Winovich and 70-A.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 38, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.29 EP