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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 16

New England Patriots 27 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 2-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.64 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model