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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 10 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.71 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model