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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 41

New England Patriots 27 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +0.98 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP