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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 33

New England Patriots 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to CLE 23 for 10 yards (51-M.Wilson, 53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.60 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.79 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model