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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 84

New England Patriots 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CLE 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 31 for 2 yards (18-M.Slater, 49-J.Cardona). PENALTY on CLE-57-A.Taylor, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 84, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 42, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model