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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to KC 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.69 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model