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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model