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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(12:42) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 54 yards to CHI 2, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 26 for 24 yards (28-B.Facyson).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.46 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP