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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:02) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 53 yards to CHI 18, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 21 for 3 yards (35-T.Pope).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model