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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 62

Chicago Bears 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to LAC 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.14 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model