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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 7

Chicago Bears 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 15-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model