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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 77

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to LAC 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-D.King to LAC 33 for no gain (47-I.Irving).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model