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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 24

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 3-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model