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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 58 yards to CHI 18, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 35 for 17 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.88 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP